Research Papers
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Working Paper Series
Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy*
Nov 2021
Swift reorganization or liquidation of insolvent businesses is the single best policy to deal with corporate debt booms.
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Working Paper Series
Mexico’s Automotive Industry: A Success Story?
Oct 2021
Between a rock and a hard place
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Working Paper Series
Ambivalence About International Trade in Open- and Closed-ended Survey Responses
Oct 2021
Open-ended polling responses reveal considerably more complexity – and more ambivalence and negativity – in Americans’ views of international trade than has been inferred from widely cited closed questions
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Working Paper Series
Why do Sovereign Borrowers Post Collateral? Evidence from the 19th Century
Oct 2021
In the 19th Century, “hypothecations” provided investors with valuable information on sovereign fiscal resources
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Working Paper Series
Expectations Concordance and Stock Market Volatility: Knightian Uncertainty in the Year of the Pandemic
Oct 2021
Stock-Price Volatility During the Pandemic
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Working Paper Series
Why the CHIPS Are Down: Stock Buybacks and Subsidies in the U.S. Semiconductor Industry
Oct 2021
To strengthen the American semiconductor industry, Congress should condition additional funds on suspending stock buybacks
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Working Paper
Market Participants Neither Commit Predictable Errors nor Conform to REH
Sep 2021
Evidence from Survey Data of Inflation Forecasts
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Working Paper Series
How Milton Friedman Exploited White Supremacy to Privatize Education
Sep 2021
“School choice” aimed to block the choice of equal, integrated education for Black families
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Working Paper Series
Automotive Global Value Chains in Europe
Aug 2021
In Europe, imbalances in the structure of the automotive and a lack of industrial policies risk creating a deadly cocktail for millions of European workers just as the auto sector is undergoing decisive changes.
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Working Paper Series
Bagehot for Central Bankers
Jun 2021
Is Victorian writer Walter Bagehot, whose adage “lending freely against good collateral at a penalty rate” has been gospel for central bankers, still relevant in a post-Great Financial Crisis world?
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Working Paper
The Unmaking of the Black Blue-Collar Middle Class
May 2021
How once-promising Black upward mobility reversed course, and what can be done about it
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Working Paper Series
The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Broad Measures of Labor Underutilization: An Empirical Analysis
May 2021
Despite fear-mongering about the latest Consumer Price Index, unemployment remains elevated and stimulus is needed to prevent a collapse in demand
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Working Paper Series
Country Risk
May 2021
Analyzing corporate conference calls reveals the way that countries perceive and spread risk through the global financial system
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Working Paper Series
On the Non-Inflationary Effects of Long-Term Unemployment Reductions
Apr 2021
Contrary to the New Keynesian paradigm, long-term unemployment can be reversed without a significant uptick in inflation
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Working Paper Series
US Employment Inequality in the Great Recession and the COVID-19 Pandemic
Apr 2021
Unlike the Great Recession, the pandemic has hit women workers harder than men, and disproportionately hurt the job prospects of lower education workers