Macroeconomics

Banks have long had undue influence in society. But with the rapid expansion of a financial sector that transforms all debts and assets into tradable commodities, we are faced with something far worse: financial markets with an only abstract, inflated, and destabilizing relationship with the real economy. To prevent another crisis, finance must be domesticated and turned into a useful servant of society. 

Contrary to the neoclassical model’s assumptions, shifts in aggregate demand have persistent effects on GDP

The prevailing wisdom that aggregate demand ‘shocks’ determine short-run cyclical fluctuations around a supply-determined equilibrium growth rate and an associated equilibrium unemployment rate (or NAIRU) has been called into question by various streams of literature in the last decades. Specifically, a recently revived literature on hysteresis finds significant persistence in the effects of recessions and negative aggregate demand shocks (Blanchard et al. 2015; Martin et al. 2015).

Contrary to conventional wisdom, government stimulus can improve the health of the economy for years after, without inflationary side effects 

Forget the myth of a savings glut causing near-zero interest rates. We have a shortage of aggregate demand, and only public spending and raising wages will change that.

Servaas Storm’s commentary on the papers presented at the secular stagnation conference.

The past 30 years has witnessed a worldwide decrease in real interest rates. We demonstrate that a large part of the fall in interest rates can be explained by changes in demography, which are as the result of a sudden fall in fertility rates across all of the advanced economies in the early 1970s.

We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn.

The concern that an economy could experience persistent, and in some sense unusual, weakness goes back to Keynes’s General Theory and led Alvin Hansen to coin the term “secular stagnation.”

This paper shows that aging has positive effect on output growth per capital at positive interest rates, due to capital deepening.

We provide a Keynesian growth theory in which pessimistic expectations can lead to very persistent, or even permanent, slumps characterized by high unemployment and weak growth.

I have read the various conference papers and am struck by the fact that many use the (omnipresent New-Keynesian) model of an aggregate loanable funds market to diagnose secular stagnation and investigate possible remedies.

This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century.

Long-term real interest rates across the world are low, having fallen by about 450 basis points (bps) over the past thirty years.

This paper replaces an earlier version of a paper released in 2014 under the title “A Model of Secular Stagnation.”

A discussion with Steven M. Fazzari, INET Grantee and the Bert A. & Jeanette L. Lynch Distinguished Professor of Economics, Washington University.

The World Economic Roundtable seeks to help the business, investment, and policy communities understand ongoing changes in the world economy and to promote a discussion of ideas that can advance the goal of a widely shared global prosperity.

The Implications of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative for China and the World Economy

The 21 FMM conference of the The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) will take place in Berlin on 9-11 November 2017.

One might think of the satisfied consensus reigning in macroeconomics before the financial crisis (and still relatively entrenched) as evidence of “Groupthink” in a “Divided State”

The consensus that reigned in macroeconomics before the financial crisis has come under renewed attack.

Macroeconomics and finance beyond DSG

Decomposition by such an important category as gender helps us understand the economy at the macro level, and design macroeconomic policy, better. It also provides the foundation for advocating equal gender rights and outcomes. But, where gendered policy issues arise in mainstream macroeconomics (income maldistribution, labour market composition, etc.) the subject matter is narrowed by its microfoundations, by focusing on GDP growth and on suboptimal outcomes being explained by market imperfections.

What would it look like if women and other marginalized groups could fully participate in our economy and society?

Untangling the Facts about Immigration in the World Economy.

The debt-growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and being affected by global factors. While there is no simple universal threshold above which debt-to-GDP becomes a significant brake on growth, based on data from the last four decades we show that high and rising public debt burdens slow down growth in the long term.

What role does debt play in triggering economic crises, and is the problem principally public or private sector debt?

It is commonly overlooked that the concept of market efficiency embowers a time-dimension. Illustrating with an example from the class of persistent random walks, we show that a price process can be a martingale on one time-scale but inefficient on another.

Xavier Gabaix argues that public policies should prioritize alleviating deprivation at the bottom over narrowing the rich-poor gap 

This paper provides a critique of the DSGE models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter-century.

When an economic model fails, it is reality—and the people living in it—who pay the bills while the model lives on, unscathed.

If standard economic theory can’t explain a traffic jam, how can it cope with crises?

As the Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted in 1987, computers are “everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” Since then, the so-called productivity paradox has become ever more striking. Automation has eliminated many jobs. Robots and artificial intelligence now seem to promise (or threaten) yet more radical change. Yet productivity growth has slowed across the advanced economies; in Britain, labor is no more productive today than it was in 2007.

A discussion featuring Kenneth Smith, Head of the Trade and NAFTA Office of the Ministry of the Economy of Mexico, and Jay Pelosky, Principal of Pelosky Global Strategies.

A breakup of the Euro will be too difficult and costly for member countries.

A discussion with Kaushik Basu, Professor of Economics and the C. Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University and former Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank. 

April 28-29, 2017, USC Dornsife INET is hosting a conference on inequality, globalization, and macroeconomics at the University of Southern California. The goal of this conference is to bring together leading researchers to discuss and present new approaches and new results on the relationships between inequality and macroeconomics and between inequality and globalization. Please direct any questions or comments to [email protected]. 

In a recent interview at the INET offices in New York, Anwar Shaikh provided a background to the work and his life in this quest.

Brazil’s current economic scenario does not resemble the emerging economy that until recently fueled the optimism of analysts and investors.

Pursuing equality while growing the economy requires reframing social spending as a form of investment.

Institute Governing Board member Anatole Kaletsky argues that the Trump Administration’s policies will boost inflation and spur interest-hikes as well as a stronger dollar more rapidly than many expect, but that the European Union’s economy is on the mend

Smick argues that distortions of capitalism have fed populist rebellion, and that reviving a capitalism that offers opportunity for average people to increase their earnings is an urgent priority if America’s political economy is to be stabilized.

Donald Trump’s presidency is a symptom of an interregnum between economic orders – a period that will result in a new balance between state and market. While his administration’s economic policies are unlikely to provide the right answer, they may at least show the world what not to do.

Beatrice Cherrier remembers Tony Atkinson’s influential intellectual, educational and institutional contribution to the field of public economics

As part of an International Economy symposium, INET Research Director Tom Ferguson assessed the challenge facing central bankers through the lens of the missing virtues of Dorothy’s travel companions in the Wizard of Oz

There is no good case for major deregulation of the US financial sector, warns INET Board Chairman Adair Turner, and any backsliding by a Trump administration on banks’ capital requirements instituted globally after 2008 will be very dangerous

Beijing’s leaders face a critical dilemma over a credit boom that imperils China’s prospects for a smooth transition to a sustainable economic path

Notes from the Institute’s Director of Research on some significant papers and contributions produced in 2016 under the INET rubric 

A discussion on President-elect Trump’s economic agenda and its implications for the U.S. and world economies.

As the world turns upside down, Mariana Mazzucato discusses how to shape an economy that works for everyone

Remedies have failed to produced growth and reduce indebtedness because they’re focused on protecting toxic behavior by banks in Europe’s core countries

The Volcker Alliance has launched a series of new papers with important proposals for reforming financial regulations to guard against future crises 

Neither do rapid growth in government debt, declining interest rates, or rapid increases in a central bank’s balance sheet

Mission-oriented public investment is vital to spur a revival of private-sector investment

Economists offer widely different explanations for the decline in trade between nations, in a debate that remains unresolved but is increasingly urgent

A conversation with Richard Vague, Managing Partner at Gabriel Investments and Chairman of the Governor’s Woods Foundation.

Seven dangers of chronically low interest rates amid austerity and fiscal-policy phobia

Like the Great Depression and the stagflation of the ’70s, the anemic growth of the U.S. economy can’t be understood or remedied without changes in economists’ thinking

Social safety nets don’t always need to come with a dark side

Institute for New Economic Thinking launches a far-reaching research effort into causes and potential remedies for the low-to-no-growth malaise afflicting many of the world’s leading economies

A conversation with Robert Johnson, President of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, former Managing Director for Soros Fund Management and former Chief Economist of the US Senate Banking Committee.

The financial system no longer funds new ideas and projects — only about 15 percent of the money coming out of financial institutions goes into business investment; the rest is spent buying and selling existing financial instruments.

Eight years after the crisis erupted, what the global economy is experiencing is starting to look less like a slow recovery than like a new low-growth equilibrium. With monetary policy unable to stimulate demand, or even inflation, it’s time for fiscal authorities to relieve the burden on central banks.

The main point of this paper is that loanable funds macroeconomic models with their “natural” interest rate don’t fit with modern institutions and data. Before getting into the numbers, it makes sense to describe the models and how to think about macroeconomics in the first place.

In a Bloomberg Markets Most Influential Summit Debate, Institute board chairman Adair Turner explains why extraordinary monetary policy isn’t working

While many countries throughout the world have faced severe financial crises over the last decades, and while the Japanese stagnation and the 1997 Asian financial crisis did induce some additional interest for the introduction of banking and finance in macroeconomic theory, it is only with the advent of the US subprime financial crisis that macroeconomic and monetary theories put forward by mainstream economists have started to be questioned.

An exclusive conversation with Richard Batley, Head of Macroeconomics at Lombard Street Research.

We know about emergency lending, but what we are missing is the macroeconomic framework to guide a new rule for stabilization policy

Like any family reunion, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium may have been as significant for what was said as it was for what was not discussed

Is Market Capitalism simply an accident of certain factors that came together in the 19th and 20th centuries? Does the innovation of economics require a new economics of innovation? Is the study of economics deeply affected by the incentive structures faced by economists themselves, necessitating a study of the “economics of economics”?

The Economist pays tribute to Hyman Minsky, whose ideas on financial instability have not been given the attention and prominence they deserve

This paper responds to a paper by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Anna Zabai “Helicopter Money: the Illusion of a Free Lunch”

Focusing on what money really is – whether gold or state fiat – shifts attention away from what credit really is, which is to say away from the center of discontent.

The deadline for submission of paper proposals and complete sessions for the 20th FMM conference is approaching: 30 June 2016. Proposals (extended abstracts, max. 400 words) have to be submitted electronically via this web application. Please find more information in the Call for Papers.

What we’re reading: Recent statements from the IMF and the OECD highlight a growing call for new economic policy thinking in response to the specter of long-term stagnation

Book review: Michel De Vroey and the problems of macroeconomics

What we’re reading: A weekly scan of published items relevant to the Institute’s work

Eight years after the 2008 crisis the global economy is still stuck with low growth, too low inflation, and rising debt burdens. Massive monetary stimulus has failed to generate adequate demand, and some commentators suggest that we are “out of ammunition” with which to counter deflationary pressures.

If the government/CB together finance an increased fiscal deficit with permanent non-interest-bearing fiat money, then some private sector agents have to hold non-interest-bearing monetary base, and must continue to do so even when policy and market interest rates have moved away from the ZLB. How is this possible in an environment where most bank deposit money is potentially interest-bearing?

In the growing debate about the pros and cons of a monetary financed fiscal stimulus (a.k.a. helicopter money) it is argued by some participants that a money-financed stimulus will have no more effect than a debt financed stimulus since:

Amid the ongoing research interest in questions of inequality, it is important to examine the question of access to housing — and how that has changed over the decades. The specific question I have sought to answer, here, is whether the real cost (measured against income) of buying the average home has risen.

Orthodox macroeconomics has become a place where visions die and hopes are banished, for both liberals and conservatives.

How Gerald Friedman’s assessment of Bernie Sanders economic proposals prompted a rare public political spat among economists.

Struggles over shadow money today echo 19th century struggles over bank deposits.

This paper proposes a new method to empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data.

What can we learn from the Vietnamese, Cuban, Rwandan, and Syrian refugees crisis?

This is a response to a critique by Paul Davidson of our 2013 book Keynes: Useful Economics for the World Economy and related work, where we describe, amongst other things, how the Swan diagram can be used to show how economies can use policy tools to achieve internal and external balance.

This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy.

It is high time to ditch this myth for at least the following five reasons.

Recently, our analysis has been questioned by Servaas Storm who has claimed that it is untenable to blame neo-mercantilist Germany for driving a wedge into the Eurozone. [i] It is shown below that Storm’s critique has a certain aplomb, but lacks substance.

Today’s richest Americans may soon blow past the tycoons of the Roaring Twenties. Lance Taylor explains why, and what to do about it.

Comments on “German Wage Moderation and the Eurozone Crisis: A Critical Analysis” by Servaas Storm

It is high time to look more closely at the labor cost competitiveness myth.

This project brings new mathematical tools and ideas from high-dimensional statistics to bear on the problem of creating reliable macroeconomic forecasting models.