Research Papers
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Working Paper Series
Wealth Concentration, Income Distribution, and Alternatives for the USA
Sep 2015
US household wealth concentration is not likely to decline in response to fiscal interventions alone.
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Working Paper Series
Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect- Foresight Analysis
Sep 2015
A prolonged period of extremely low nominal interest rates has not resulted in high inflation. This has led to increased interest in the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates may themselves cause inflation to be lower.
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Working paper
Towards a General Theory of Deep Downturns
Aug 2015
This paper, an extension of the Presidential Address to the International Economic Association, evaluates alternative strands of macro-economics in terms of the three basic questions posed by deep downturns: What is the source of large perturbations? How can we explain the magnitude of volatility? How do we explain persistence?
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Working Paper Series
Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013
Jul 2015
This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemicrisk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data.
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Conference paper
Myths, Mix-ups and Mishandlings: What Caused the Eurozone Crisis?
Jul 2015
The Eurozone crisis has been wrongly interpreted as either a crisis of fiscal profligacy or of deteriorating unit-labour cost competitiveness (caused by rigid labour markets), or a combination of both.
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Partnership Paper
Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?
Jul 2015
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.
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Working paper
The Consumption Response to Liquidity-Enhancing Transfers: Evidence from Italian Earthquakes
Jun 2015
Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth
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Working paper
Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?
Jun 2015
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.
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Report
IMF Country Report 15/165: Greek Debt Sustainability Analysis
Jun 2015
According to Reuters, Eurozone officials attempted to suppress the publication of this report.
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Working paper
Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Female Labour Supply
Jun 2015
There is a renewed interest in the size of labour supply elasticities and the discrepancy between micro and macro estimates. Recent contributions have stressed the distinction between changes in labour supply at the extensive and the intensive margin. In this paper, we stress the importance of individual heterogeneity and aggregation problems.
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Working paper
Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage
May 2015
Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage.
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Working paper
Contagion Exposure and Protection Technology
May 2015
People adopt diverse measures to protect from contagion. I propose a taxonomy of protection technologies, and present a model to study the implications of the technology on the prevalence of infections and on welfare at different levels of exposure.
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Working paper
Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Network
Apr 2015
The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized model of network formation.
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Working paper
Laid Low: The IMF, The Eurozone and the First Rescue of Greece
Apr 2015
As Greece descended into a financial maelstrom in the spring of 2010, a small group of staffers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held top-secret talks with officials from the German and French finance ministries to discuss the idea of restructuring Greece’s debt.
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Working paper
Discrimination, Social Identity, and Coordination: An Experiment
Apr 2015
This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidate