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The shortage of liquidity in the interbank market in China has sparked off a fear of “monetary famine.” This seems rather odd when the national savings rate is 50 per cent of GDP

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussing the lessons of macroeconomic stimulus provided by the recent histories of Japan and Great Britain.

Recent austerity policies have been guided by ideology rather than research. This column discusses research that reconciles disparate estimates of fiscal multipliers in the literature. It finds that common identification assumptions are problematic. Matching methods based on propensity scores show how contractionary austerity really is, especially in economies operating below potential.

Did the global economic collapse in 2008 stem from structural failures in the capitalist system?

“How could Michigan officials possibly talk about cutting the average $19,000-a-year pension benefit for municipal workers while reaffirming their pledge of$283 million in taxpayer money to a professional hockey stadium?

Warren Mosler, president of the financial services firm Valance Company and one of the founders of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), speaks about what MMT tells us about economic policy. How can MMT help get the economy back on track?

Changing the incentives for how economists determine both the content of the subject and their approach to scientific research could increase the range of thinking in the profession

In introducing game theory (in chapters 7-9), MWG build upon the theory of rational choice by individual agents, developed previously in the book to attempt to analyze (describe, explain, and even predict?) the interactions of such agents as well as the outcomes to which they give rise. In previous chapters, MWG discuss interactions only in the form of the arms-length interactions of numerous firms and consumers in specific markets (e.g. under ‘perfect competition’, in chapters 3 and 5).

Orville Schell, Director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, discussing his new book, “Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty First Century.”

Is China is “too big to fail.”?

Economic theories are powerful things, to be used and misused. Those who write economic theory and do economic policy need to be aware of the consequences of what they are doing.

Will Abenomics succeed in getting Japan’s economy back on the path to sustainable growth? Or is it doomed to fail?

A review of The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths, the new book by Mariana Mazzucato

Between July 5th and 12th, the second annual summer school in development economics, jointly sponsored by Azim Premji University and the Institute for New Economic Thinking, was held in Bangalore, India.

Matheus Grasselli discusses how the use of advanced mathematics in economics enables innovative new thinking.

The Institute have organized a Workshop on “Interlinkages and Systemic Risk” in Ancona, Italy that will take place on July 4th and 5th.

We estimate the effect of the diffusion of photovoltaic (PV) systems on the fraction of votes obtained by the German Green Party.

In this short interview, Institute co-founder George Soros tackles the question at the heart of the Institute’s mission: What’s wrong with economics and what can we do to change it?

Axiomatic bargaining is presented in MWG in the context of welfare economics (Ch. 22), the aim being the formulation of reasonable criteria for dividing gains resulting from cooperative endeavors (the “joint surplus”). It is further presented as an application of cooperative game theory, in which an arbitrator distributes the joint surplus in a manner that reflects “fairly” the bargaining strength of the different agents (although we could conceive of a situation where the parties are bargaining without an external party). If bargaining fails, the outcome is the parties’ own fallback positions (the threat point, or status quo).

is the public sector really sclerotic and conservative in contrast with a dynamic and innovative private sector?

To what extant do existing mainstream models properly address issues such as heterogeneity and interactions, which are considered central ingredients to understand economic crises as emergent, endogenous phenomena.

How to become a historian of economic thought? Members of the profession gather just once a year at the annual conference of the History of Economic Society but otherwise are dispersed in universities and archives all around the world.

“Four men sat at a table. Raised sixty floors above the city, they did not speak loudly as one speaks from a height in the freedom of air and space; they kept their voices low, as befitted a cellar.”

How does debt influence growth?

Collective Action When Market Forces Overwhelm the Nation State

A genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment was conducted in a discovery sample of 101,069 individuals and a replication sample of 25,490. Three independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are genome-wide significant (rs9320913, rs11584700, rs4851266), and all three replicate.

‘Helicopter money’ may in some circumstances be the only certain way to stimulate nominal demand

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, many of our policy makers and top economists are still stumbling in the dark.

Dr. Vamsi Vakulabharanam, an associate professor of economics at the University of Hyderabad and a grantee of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, has won the prestigious Amartya Sen Award, a newly instituted honor given by the Indian Council for Social Sciences Research (ICSSR).

This chapter discusses different approaches pursued to explore three broad questions related to technology diffusion: what general patterns characterize the diffusion of technologies, and how have they changed over time; what are the key drivers of technology, and what are the macroeconomic consequences of technology.

Recovery from recessions takes longer than it has in the past.

Looming behind the aforementioned narratives of postwar economics is a notion – economics as engineering – which at times appears as a metaphor and at times stands for a straight depiction of economists’ professional milieu and practices.

The rise of the economist as engineer is, economists and historians say, an essential characteristic of the development of economics in the postwar period.

The recent debate about the reproducibility of the results published by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff offers a showcase for the importance of replication in empirical economics.

So why am I hopeful about the future?

To illustrate the previous post on the difficulties in putting together a chronology, here is tentative chronology of economics at Carnegie. It’s still in process, and links, sources and entries will be updated as I read.

The proliferation of China’s opaque, loosely regulated (or unregulated) shadow-banking system has been raising fears of possible financial instability. But just how extensive – and how risky – is shadow banking in China?

This year, I’m sharing an office with an econometrician on Mondays and with a geographer on Fridays (you don’t want to go into the subtleties of the French educational system).

There is a “tendency to neglect applied economics in writing the history of economic thought,” Roger Backhouse and Jeff Biddle remarked in 2000. They then followed the “applied” trail back into the XIXth and early XXth centuries, at a time the scope and nature of economics were debatted by continental and especially British political economists

Reinhart and Rogoff’s 2010 paper “Growth in a Time of Debt” has recently come under scrutiny

INET Advisory Board members Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff today issued a response to recentcriticism of their paper “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Their response in full is below.

It is often argued that in recent years the question of the ‘dissemination’ of economic knowledge has been increasingly addressed by historians of economics.

A three-day conference, hosted by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, the Fung Global Institute and the Centre for International Governance Innovation, has drawn to a close.

A minimum wage is a small minnow in an ocean of deficient aggregate demand

The Economist profiles INET’s Hong Kong conference

These are extraordinary times for central banks. Near zero interest rates and massive liquidity injections are still failing to bring life back to so many economies in the developed world.

In this paper we provide a summary and a guide to the literature for a new line of research which goes under the name of Economic Complexity and is partly performed incollaboration with INET.

“Look! Up there in the sky! What is it? Is it a plane? Is it a bird?” No, it’s a distraction from the robbery that is taking place in broad daylight on the ground.

Innovation. The word is evocative of ideas, products and processes which have somehow made the world a better place. Prior to the global financial crisis, many viewed financial innovation as unequivocally falling into this category.

The exteriors of major central banks may be solid marble and doric columns, but, inside, monetary policy remains a work in progress.

Only a few years ago, comparisons of American politics to opéra bouffe were not outrageously farfetched at least if you were not poor or sick.

Since the dawn of this millennium, and long before the current financial turmoil and the subsequent bitter pill of austerity therapy hit the Untied States and the European Union, the Chinese Communist Government has publicly recognized the monumental challenge of polarity.

There are a number of possible purposes in assessing the level of economic development of a country or part of a country. The assessment may provide an incentive for better development, particularly if it can be compared meaningfully with assessments for other countries.

At dinner yesterday Niall Ferguson made the argument that China (or the East) were perhaps no longer looking to how Western countries had built their social institutions and formed their empires, and were instead now doing their own thing as the Western approach was shown to be flawed

“Taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the structural adjustments of the global economy…”The decisions on the four modernisations taken at the Third Plenum represented a radical change in Chinese domesticdevelopment strategy.

Political meritocracy is the idea that a political system is designed with the aim of selecting political leaders with above average ability to make morally informed political judgments. That is, political meritocracy has two key components: (1) the political leaders have above average ability and virtue and (2) the selection mechanism is designed to choose such leaders.

At the heart of economics is a theory of action. It reflects views about how human beings make economic decisions and leads to an analysis of aggregate consequences.

A core puzzle in Önancial economics is the inability of standard risk-premium models to account for excess returns in currency and other asset markets.

Neoclassical economics has abolished the role of psychology in decision making by assuming that all individuals are rational optimizers with rational expectations about future events.

The global financial crisis led to the rediscovery of ‘fundamental uncertainty’. Incorporating uncertainty into the analysis of financial markets alters our understanding of how these markets operate and expose the two-faced role of law in finance.

There is much anecdotal evidence in the popular media, backed up by survey research, that participants in currency markets pay close attention to fundamental economic variables in forming their forecasts of future exchange rates.

For macroeconomists, an individual is rational if she uses her understanding of the way the economy works in making decisions that do not conflict with her objectives.

The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.

In this paper, we examine one of the core puzzles in International Macroeconomics, the so-called “forward-discount anomaly.”

A core premise of contemporary economic models is that researchers can adequately specify in probabilistic terms how individuals alter the way they make decisions and how the processes underpinning market outcomes unfold over time.

The first part of this text comes back on the standard economic viewpoint on expectational coordination, a viewpoint that the recent events have challenged.

State and market are often depicted as distinct, even antagonistic. Markets appear as natural products of spontaneous ordering; states as leviathans that if left untamed will distort, if not destroy markets’ natural state.

Uncertainty is an unavoidable feature of economic life, although we may cope with it sometimes by ignoring it. Institutions, conventions and behaviour are all conditioned by uncertainty, and they in turn condition uncertainty in a reflexive manner.

The reason why the Euro zone crisis has dragged on for so long is that Europe’s leaders have focused too much on short-term measures to patch up the emergency of the moment, rather than formulating a comprehensive plan.

After the announcement of Mario Draghi, the ECB president, to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the integrity of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in July 2012 and the establishment of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program in September 2012, the crisis of EMU is far from being resolved.

Mercantilism, Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves, and RMB Internationalization

Regulation and supervision of banks and financial markets are now upgraded in the euro area. Surveillance of macroeconomic performance of all EU countries is also intensified.

In the first ten chapters of our book, The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It, we discuss banking and the economics of funding as it applies to banks.

Europe can choose its musical accompaniment. In Berlin, 50 Cent’s All Things Fall Apart has just had its premiere. Or go back to Giuseppe Verdi, born two hundred years ago.

Internationalization of the renminbi is a stated goal of the Chinese government, its brief flirtation with Special Drawing Rights and an Asian Currency Unit notwithstanding. Chinese officials understand that a dollar-centric international monetary and financial system is a mixedblessing.

Imperfect knowledge economics, or IKE to their friends, is popular with all the popular kids. George Soros, Bill Janeway and Anatole Kaletsky were in attendance as Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg - or more properly, their students - showed the latest work in progress.

Japan is going to double its money supply, according to today’s front page of the Financial Times (5 April 2013), and a salient question might be what we should compare that to. It sounds like a lot, but is it?

Having lunch next to Edward Fullbrook he told me the story of how the post-autistic economic review got its start, leading to what we today know as the World Economic Association and all the great work coming from this community.

Some personal touches to hospitality at the INET conference, although I feel for the people who have been holding that sign all day.

In his opening remarks, Robert Johnson said that this “is not the institute of anything goes” with INET now getting to a point where it needs to stop criticising the mainstream and should instead “create a new vision.”

The Institute for New Economic Thinking held its annual plenary conference in Hong Kong from April 4-7, 2013 at the InterContinental Hotel in Kowloon. The event discussed Asia’s emergence in the global economy and other core issues.