Archive
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Working Paper
Conference paperDomestic Rebalancing to Reduce Global Imbalances: The Role of Financial Market Measures
Apr 2013
“Taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the structural adjustments of the global economy…”The decisions on the four modernisations taken at the Third Plenum represented a radical change in Chinese domesticdevelopment strategy.
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Working Paper
Conference paperMeritocracy Is a Good Thing
Apr 2013
Political meritocracy is the idea that a political system is designed with the aim of selecting political leaders with above average ability to make morally informed political judgments. That is, political meritocracy has two key components: (1) the political leaders have above average ability and virtue and (2) the selection mechanism is designed to choose such leaders.
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Working Paper
Conference paperIrreducible Uncertainty and its Implications: A Narrative Action Theory for Economics.
Apr 2013
At the heart of economics is a theory of action. It reflects views about how human beings make economic decisions and leads to an analysis of aggregate consequences.
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Working Paper
Conference paperA Keynes-IKE Model of Currency Risk: A CVAR Investigation
Apr 2013
A core puzzle in Önancial economics is the inability of standard risk-premium models to account for excess returns in currency and other asset markets.
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Working Paper
Conference paperMarket Psychology, Animal Spirits and Reflexivity
Apr 2013
Neoclassical economics has abolished the role of psychology in decision making by assuming that all individuals are rational optimizers with rational expectations about future events.
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Conference Session
China in the World: Growth, Adjustment and Integration
Apr 4, 2013 | 11:45—01:15
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Conference Session
The Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) Approach to Modeling An Open World
Apr 4, 2013 | 09:50—10:30
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Conference Session
What is the Role of Psychological Considerations in Economics?
Apr 4, 2013 | 09:50—11:30
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Law-Finance Paradox
Apr 2013
The global financial crisis led to the rediscovery of ‘fundamental uncertainty’. Incorporating uncertainty into the analysis of financial markets alters our understanding of how these markets operate and expose the two-faced role of law in finance.
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Conference Session
Capitalism and the Rule of Law
Apr 4, 2013 | 02:30—04:30
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Working Paper
Conference paperRationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle: Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
Apr 2013
There is much anecdotal evidence in the popular media, backed up by survey research, that participants in currency markets pay close attention to fundamental economic variables in forming their forecasts of future exchange rates.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Rationality and Contingent Knowledge in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory
Apr 2013
For macroeconomists, an individual is rational if she uses her understanding of the way the economy works in making decisions that do not conflict with her objectives.
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Working Paper
Conference paperRationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change
Apr 2013
The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.
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Working Paper
Conference paperForward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries
Apr 2013
In this paper, we examine one of the core puzzles in International Macroeconomics, the so-called “forward-discount anomaly.”
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Econometrics of Imperfect Knowledge Economics
Apr 2013
A core premise of contemporary economic models is that researchers can adequately specify in probabilistic terms how individuals alter the way they make decisions and how the processes underpinning market outcomes unfold over time.