Archive
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Working Paper
Conference paperFracturing at the Core of the Global Order
Oct 2017
The Death of the Seventy-year American Empire
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Functional Importance of Asset Backed Securities
Oct 2017
An Assessment and Some Policy Implications
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe humble economist
Oct 2017
What economics can – and can’t – tell us about climate change
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Conference Session
Doubling Down on Failure Subsidizing More One Way Bets?
Oct 23, 2017 | 02:30
One-way bets and bubble machines: How can central banks restrain moral hazard when markets know they bail out big banks in financial crises?
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Conference Session
Core Fractures and International Relations
Oct 23, 2017 | 04:30
As dual economies transform countries, how does world politics adjust?
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Working Paper
Conference paperInnovative Enterprise and Sustainable Prosperity
Oct 2017
We want an economy that generates stable and equitable growth—or what I call “sustainable prosperity.” We want productivity growth that makes it possible for the population to have higher living standards over time. We want an equitable sharing of the gains from productivity growth among those whose work efforts and financial resources contribute to that growth. And we want sufficient job stability to enable workers to remain in productive employment for some four decades at work while providing them with enough savings to provide them with adequate incomes over some two decades of retirement.
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Working Paper
Conference paperDualism and Economic Stagnation
Oct 2017
Can a Policy of Guaranteed Basic Income Return Mature Market Economies to les Trente Glorieuses?
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Working Paper
Conference paperWealth Creation and the Entrepreneurial State
Oct 2017
Building symbiotic public-private partnerships
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Conference Session
Reversing Dual Economies?
Oct 23, 2017 | 11:00
What can policy do to remedy the spread of dual economies in the developed world?
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Working Paper
Conference paperGender and the Future of Macroeconomics
Oct 2017
Decomposition by such an important category as gender helps us understand the economy at the macro level, and design macroeconomic policy, better. It also provides the foundation for advocating equal gender rights and outcomes. But, where gendered policy issues arise in mainstream macroeconomics (income maldistribution, labour market composition, etc.) the subject matter is narrowed by its microfoundations, by focusing on GDP growth and on suboptimal outcomes being explained by market imperfections.
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Conference Session
Macroeconomics of Gender
Oct 23, 2017 | 12:45
What would it look like if women and other marginalized groups could fully participate in our economy and society?
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Research Program News
Institute for New Economic Thinking uses Edinburgh conference to unveil new initiative to 'transform' global economy (Business Insider UK)
Oct 23, 2017
This article originally appeared on insider.co.uk
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News
CommonSpace: Nobel prize-winning economist makes the case for Scottish independence in the EU
Oct 23, 2017
Commission on Global Economic Transformation member Joseph Stiglitz argues that an independent Scotland in the EU would “resolve a lot of the uncertainties” of Brexit at INET’s Reawakening conference in Edinburgh
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News
The Edinburgh Reporter: Call for green investment to transform Scotland’s economy
Oct 23, 2017
INET Chairman Adair Turner and Grantee Mariana Mazzucato comment on the Friends of the Earth Scotland event and a green economic transition.
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Conference Session
Why Do Estimates of Immigration's Economic Effects Clash So Sharply?
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
Untangling the Facts about Immigration in the World Economy.
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Conference Session
Emerging Economies
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
Coping with the dysfunction of advanced economies, and developing strategies for economic development.
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Conference Session
Identity Norms and Narratives
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
The Role These Factors Play in Shaping Economic Knowledge and Behavior
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Conference Session
James Heckman on Intergenerational Issues
Oct 22, 2017 | 05:15
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Working Paper
Conference paperBetting on Hitler – The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany
Oct 2017
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming unconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These results are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators and definitions of affiliation.
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Working Paper
Conference paperImperfect Knowledge, Unpredictability and the Failures of Modern Macroeconomics
Oct 2017
After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.
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Working Paper
Conference paperFrom the Prevailing Paradigm to the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis
Oct 2017
In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.
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Working Paper
Conference paperNotes on the Failure of the Weimar Republic
Oct 2017
“The Failure of Democracy” – “The weaknesses of Weimar” Do headlines such as these suggest that the whole architecture of the first German republic was wrong, that it was doomed right from the start, that the “collapse” was unavoidable?
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Value of Political Connections in Fascist Italy
Oct 2017
Stock Market Returns and Corporate Networks
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Conference Session
Truth or Consequences: Lessons from Past Democratic Collapses
Oct 22, 2017 | 01:30
A look at how liberal democracies have disintegrated amid economic crises. Speakers: Thomas Ferguson, Tiziana Foresti, Nadia Garbellini, Peter Langer, Joachim Voth, Ariel Wirkierman Discussant: James Kurth Chair: Thomas Ferguson
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Conference Session
New Developments in the Economics of Imperfect Knowledge
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
How we can create useful economic theory that recognizes that the future is radically uncertain?
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Working Paper
Conference paperWho voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis
Oct 2017
On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom.
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Conference Session
Populist Revolts: Economics, Culture, Race, Gender?
Oct 22, 2017 | 09:00
Different accounts trace populism to cultural reactions, racial or gender animosity, and/or economics. What does the empirical evidence suggest?
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Working Paper
Conference paperA Burning Debt. The Influence of Household Debt on Investment, Production and Growth in US.
Oct 2017
This paper discusses household debt as a long term phenomenon that influences economies beyond crises.1 In other words, rather than look at how household indebtedness can lead to crises, I will focus on its surprising persistence at very high levels, and its interactions along the way with other key variables, such as public policies and spending. The first section describes some stylized facts and the final section explores the macroeconomic consequences.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Hinge of Fate? Economic and Social Populism in the 2016 Presidential Election A Preliminary Exploration
Oct 2017
Support for populism is often attributed to xenophobia, racism, sexism; to anger and resentment at immigrants, racial or ethnic minorities, or “uppity” non-traditional women. According to these accounts , people who feel socially resentful may reject established politicians as favoring those “others” over people like themselves, and turn to outsider populistic leaders.
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Working Paper
Conference paperRising public debt-to-GDP can harm economic growth
Oct 2017
The debt-growth relationship is complex, varying across countries and being affected by global factors. While there is no simple universal threshold above which debt-to-GDP becomes a significant brake on growth, based on data from the last four decades we show that high and rising public debt burdens slow down growth in the long term.
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Working Paper
Conference paperInstrumental Variables and Causal Mechanisms
Oct 2017
Unpacking the Effect of Trade on Workers and Voters
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Working Paper
Conference paperInside the Great Leveraging
Oct 2017
This paper discusses what we have learned about the debt build-up in advanced societies over the past century. It shows that the extraordinary growth of aggregate debt in the past century was driven by the private sector.
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Conference Session
Debt Traps, Public and Private
Oct 22, 2017 | 04:30
What role does debt play in triggering economic crises, and is the problem principally public or private sector debt?
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Working Paper
Conference paperInnovation, Intellectual Property, and Development
Oct 2017
A better set of approaches for the 21st century.
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Working Paper
Conference paperHell is Truth Seen Too Late
Oct 2017
The contemporary literature on neoliberalism has grown so large as to be unwieldy. For some on the left, this has presented an occasion to denounce it altogether.
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Working Paper
Conference paperHow far are Economists Purveyors of Fake News?
Oct 2017
How far are economists implicated in the rise of ‘fake experts’ and ‘fake news’?
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Conference Session
Fake News and Fake Experts? Or Should the Experts and the Media Find New Citizens?
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
Fake news, propaganda, and “expertise”: What has happened to information in the information age?
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Working Paper
Conference paperGains from Trade
Oct 2017
Is Comparative Advantage the Ideology of the Comparatively Advantaged?
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Working Paper
Conference paperImporting Political Polarization?
Oct 2017
The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure
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Working Paper
Conference paperDiversity and the Evaluation of Economic Research: The Case of Italy
Oct 2017
Especially in the wake of the Great Recession, calls for more diversity within economics are usually limited to appealing for greater diversity in the economists’ backgrounds, while diversity of opinion and approaches is often neglected.
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Working Paper
Conference paperFathers of Neoliberalism
Oct 2017
The Academic and Professional Performance of the Chicago School, 1960-1985
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Conference Session
Taking the Con Out of Economics? The Limits of Negative Darwinism
Oct 22, 2017 | 12:00
What Do Citations Actually Measure in Economics and How Should Economic Journals and Department Review Committees Use This Data?
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Conference Session
Redefining Inequality
Oct 22, 2017 | 06:30
As the old lines continue to shift, what does inequality mean in the modern global economy? And, how does the economy need to evolve to address these changes?
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News
Nobel Laureates to Co-Chair Independent Commission on Global Economy
Oct 22, 2017
Joseph Stiglitz, Michael Spence and a global team of leading thinkers are calling for new thinking & new rules for the world economy
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Research Program News
Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spence head commission to tackle problems of global economy (Sunday Times)
Oct 22, 2017
This article originally appeared in The Sunday Times of London
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News
Bloomberg: Nobel Laureates Stiglitz, Spence Lead New Group to Tackle World's Economic Woes
Oct 22, 2017
Stiglitz speaks to Bloomberg about INET’s Commission on Global Economic Transformation
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News
The Edinburgh Reporter: Sturgeon opens conference in Edinburgh
Oct 21, 2017
“First Minister Nicola Sturgeon opened a conference attended by some of the world’s leading economists in Edinburgh earlier today explaining some of the economic challenges Scotland faces”
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Working Paper
Conference paperA Fiscal Union. Is it likely? Would it be enough?
Oct 2017
The current crisis is the culmination of a process of integration that has profoundly changed the structure of each member state, their inter-relations and their power relations. One of its side effects was the rediscovery of the terms ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ to analyse the economic situations of the European countries.
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Working Paper
Conference paperMacroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union
Oct 2017
The euro area has been experiencing a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very low inflation.
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Working Paper
Conference paperHow a Flawed Structure is Hurting the Eurozone—Economically and Politically
Oct 2017
The wind appears to be back in the sails of the Eurozone economy ….
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Working Paper
Conference paperPower or Economic Law?
Oct 2017
Some fresh reflections on ECB policy
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Conference Session
The Future of the Eurozone
Oct 21, 2017 | 12:30
Can a monetary union without true banking and fiscal union be saved? What remains of the hopes that animated the Treaty of Rome?
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Conference Session
INET and Economics in Cambridge
Oct 21, 2017 | 06:35—07:20
A discussion of new economic thinking over the years at Cambridge, and its recent contributions via the Cambridge-INET Institute
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Conference Session
Adam Smith and the Scottish Enlightenment
Oct 21, 2017 |
Adam Smith and his contemporaries were key figures of the Scottish enlightenment. How much of his real thought survives in modern economics, and has something important been lost?
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Working Paper
Conference paperOn Adam Smith
Oct 2017
Given that this is a panel on that quintessential Enlightenment thinker Adam Smith, I can think of no better way to begin my remarks than to invoke that most enlightened of modern economists, Kenneth Boulding, who in 1971 penned the delightful essay, “After Samuelson, Who Needs Adam Smith?”
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Working Paper
Conference paper“Come forth into the light of things”: William Wordsworth’s Human Challenge to Economic Thinking
Oct 2017
When priests and princes lost their monopoly over the big questions of human existence over the course of the Enlightenment, philosophers, poets, and ordinary people struggled to find out the answers on their own.
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Working Paper
Conference paperAdam Smith, the Scottish Enlightenment, and ‘realistic’ Philosophy
Oct 2017
Adam Smith’s modern fame as the founding father of economics has, until relatively recently, obscured the fact that he saw himself as a moral philosopher.
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Working Paper
Conference paperReawakening: From the Origins of Economic Ideas to the Challenges of Our Time
Oct 2017
The road towards a decent society; lessons from classical political economy
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Vanishing Middle Class: The Growth of a Dual Economy
Oct 2017
Growing income inequality is threatening the American middle class, and the middle class is vanishing before our eyes. We are still one country, but the stretch of incomes is fraying the unity of our nation.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Precariat under Rentier Capitalism
Oct 2017
The Precariat under Rentier Capitalism Guy Standing We are in the midst of a Global Transformation, analogous to Karl Polanyi’s Great Transformation described in his seminal 1944 book. Whereas Polanyi’s Transformation was about constructing national market systems, today’s is about the painful construction of a global market system. To use Polanyi’s term, the ‘dis-embedded’ phase has been dominated by an ideology of market liberalisation, commodification and privatisation, orchestrated by financial interests, as in his model. The similarities also extend to today’s fundamental challenge, how to construct a ‘re-embedded’ phase, with new systems of regulation, distribution and social protection.
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Working Paper
Conference paperExplaining Dualism in a Gender Perspective: Gender, Class and the Crisis
Oct 2017
In the economic literature, several scholars have addressed the narrative of a two-stage European crisis. In a first stage, the so-called “he-cession”, men would have been hit the most by the economic recession induced by the financial crisis. Shortly thereafter, in the “she-austerity” stage, women would have suffered the heaviest burdens of the fiscal retrenchment measures. If that were the case, the policy response to the crisis would be producing an increase in the – already high pre-existing – gender inequality.
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Conference Session
The Growth of a Dual Economy
Oct 21, 2017 | 05:00
“Dual Economy” models were developed to explain growth in the developing world. Now they appear necessary to comprehend the high income trap that afflicts the world’s most developed economies.
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Conference Session
INET President: Rebuilding A Moral Economics
Oct 21, 2017 | 11:15
Rob Johnson kicks off INET’s “Reawakening” conference with his take on how economists can win back the trust of a world that has rejected experts
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Working Paper
Conference paperPersistent Effects of Autonomous Demand Expansions
Oct 2017
This paper aims to assess such tendency to return to a supply-determined potential output, independent of aggregate demand, after episodes of demand expansion.
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Working Paper
Conference paperSecular Demand Stagnation in the 21st Century U.S. Economy
Oct 2017
Preliminary draft prepared for INET conference session “A Decade of Stagnation. Why?”
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Conference Session
A Decade of Stagnation, Why?
Oct 21, 2017 | 11:30
What explains the slow recovery from the financial crisis and great recession in so much of the world?
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Conference Session
Scottish First Minister Opens #INET2017
Oct 21, 2017 | 11:00
Nicola Sturgeon covers a range of topics including how economists’ work relates to policymaking, the financial crisis and the dangers of groupthink, how dissatisfaction with stagnating wages and rising inequality played into political shocks like Brexit, the legacy of Adam Smith, why new economic thinking is so important, and what her government is doing to foster and apply it.
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Research Program News
Nobel Laureates Stiglitz, Spence Lead New Group to Tackle World's Economic Woes (Bloomberg News)
Oct 21, 2017
This article originally appeared on Bloomberg
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Webinars and Events
Reawakening
PlenaryFrom the Origins of Economic Ideas to the Challenges of Our Time
Oct 21–23, 2017
INET gathered hundreds of new economic thinkers in Edinburgh to discuss the past, present, and future of the economics profession.
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Article
Enlightenment Then, Enlightenment Now
Oct 20, 2017
What can today’s economists learn from the 18th century Scottish thinkers who grappled with societal and economic change?
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Article
What Idea Shapes Our World More Than Adam Smith’s Economics?
Oct 20, 2017
Animal rights, child welfare, social equality are all a direct legacy of the “cult of feeling”
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YSI Event
Festival for New Economic Thinking
YSI
ConferenceOct 19–20, 2017
The Festival for New Economic Thinking is a collaborative initiative of several organizations, and aims to bring together those who seek to improve how economics is taught, studied and practiced.
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Article
Can Bitcoin Replace the Dollar?
Oct 14, 2017
Financial Globalization and its Cryptocurrency Discontents
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Article
“Worse Than Big Tobacco”: How Big Pharma Fuels the Opioid Epidemic
Oct 10, 2017
Once again, an out-of-control industry is threatening public health on a mammoth scale
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Conference Session
Brexit and the European Union: One Year On
Oct 10, 2017 | 04:00—05:30
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Article
America’s Rising, Invisible Debt
Oct 6, 2017
Why it’s time to repeal the debt ceiling and replace it with a ‘truth in borrowing’ act
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Article
How Economists Turned Corporations into Predators
Oct 5, 2017
The Idea That Businesses Exist Solely to Enrich Shareholders Is Harmful Nonsense
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Webinars and Events
Talking Economics Global Finance and Reform in India
DiscussionOct 5, 2017
Adair Turner in conversation with Nasser Munjee, moderated by David Webb
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Conference Session
Is Europe’s Economic Recovery for Real?
Oct 3, 2017 | 04:00—05:30
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Working Paper
Working paperInnovative Enterprise Solves the Agency Problem
Oct 2017
The Theory of the Firm, Financial Flows, and Economic Performance
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Collection
#INET2017
Material from, and related to, INET’s 2017 conference: Reawakening
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Video
Why Exports Alone Can’t Make Poor Countries Rich
Sep 27, 2017
“Blindly” Engaging in Global Supply Chains Can Erode Developing Nations’ Economic Power
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Conference Session
American Big Tech vs. China Big Tech: Common Challenges or Conflicting Concerns?
Sep 26, 2017 | 08:15—09:45
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Video
Economies Live in Societies. Why Do So Few Economists Acknowledge That?
Sep 20, 2017
Rather than continue to narrow the field, economists need to ask what they’re missing
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Working Paper
Working paperBubbles as violations of efficient time-scales
Sep 2017
It is commonly overlooked that the concept of market efficiency embowers a time-dimension. Illustrating with an example from the class of persistent random walks, we show that a price process can be a martingale on one time-scale but inefficient on another.
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YSI Event
Innovation, Institutions and Governance
YSI
ConferenceSep 16–19, 2017
The YSI Economics of Innovation Working Group in partnership with the Ragnar Nurkse Department of Innovation and Governance, Tallinn University of Technology is hosting a YSI Conference on “Innovation, Institutions and Governance”.
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Working Paper
Working paperEurope’s Zombie Megabanks and the Differential Regulatory Arrangements that Keep Them In Play
Sep 2017
This paper analyzes the link between Kamakura Risk Information Services (KRIS) data on megabank default probabilities and credit spreads.
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Video
Why Economists Need the Arts
Sep 13, 2017
Engaging in music, literature and the arts is essential for understanding context and human behavior—which economists so often miss
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Article
Puerto Rico Is Getting Squeezed, and It Will Cost All of Us
Sep 12, 2017
The path of austerity could spread economic pain and social woes far beyond the Caribbean island, says public debt expert Martin Guzman
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Video
Is Poverty More Worrying than Inequality?
Sep 6, 2017
Xavier Gabaix argues that public policies should prioritize alleviating deprivation at the bottom over narrowing the rich-poor gap
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Working Paper
Grantee paperWhere Modern Macroeconomics Went Wrong
Sep 2017
This paper provides a critique of the DSGE models that have come to dominate macroeconomics during the past quarter-century.
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Video
How Elite Financial Networks Rule the World
Aug 30, 2017
Personal connections are key to understanding concentrations of wealth and power
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Article
Political Economy, Technocracy, and the New Gilded Age
Aug 28, 2017
In this episode of Hidden Forces, host Demetri Kofinas speaks with Robert Johnson, about the political economy, inequality, and the failings of our technocratic institutions.
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YSI Event
Capitalism, Technology, and Scientism
Threats to Democracy?
YSI
WorkshopAug 27, 2017
YSI Philosophy of Economics working group is organising a workshop preceding the INEM conference.
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Article
Edward Kane: Hidden Subsidies for Too Big to Fail Banks
Aug 24, 2017
An examination of some little-known ways nation states and central banks prop up megabanks
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Video
How About that Looming Robotic Job Apocalypse?
Aug 16, 2017
Why we should worry about job quality, not quantity—or robot overlords
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Article
Surprise: The 1% Is Overrepresented in the Ivy League
Aug 11, 2017
New research shows that access to elite colleges varies by parents’ income—reinforcing inequality across generations
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Article
Economic Models That Are Costing Us All
Aug 11, 2017
When an economic model fails, it is reality—and the people living in it—who pay the bills while the model lives on, unscathed.
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Video
Are Corporations’ Financial Investments Slowing Growth?
Aug 9, 2017
Davis looks at the financialization of non-financial corporations—i.e., firms that traditionally produce goods and services and invest in machinery, buildings and technology rather than trade in financial assets—and asks what it means that they’re taking on large financial investments.
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Article
Protectionism Will Not Protect Jobs Anywhere
Aug 7, 2017
The same angst that Americans and Europeans have about the future of jobs is an order of magnitude higher in Asia.