Archive
-
Article
Draghi’s Doom Loop(s): More than Just the Euthanasia of the Rentiers
Apr 7, 2015
The tail risks that may be generated by Mario Draghi’s monetary policy innovations in the Eurozone include even more intense versions of Andrew Haldane’s “Doom Loops”
-
Working Paper
Working paperLarge Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle
Apr 2015
Do large firm dynamics drive the business cycle? We answer this question by developing a quantitative theory of aggregate fluctuations caused by firm-level disturbances alone. We show that a standard heterogeneous firm dynamics setup already contains in it a theory of the business cycle, without appealing to aggregate shocks.
-
Article
Tap... Tap... Tap... Is This Thing on?
Apr 5, 2015
Welcome to our website, and thus weblog, relaunch.
-
Working Paper
Working Paper SeriesChange and Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory: A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis
Mar 2015
We call attention to the class of models that serve as the foundation for the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Models in this class rule out completely any structural change that cannot be fully anticipated with a probabilistic or other quantitative rule. REH models are abstractions of rational decision-making, but only in a hypothetical world in which participants can fully anticipate when and how they might revise their understanding of the process driving outcomes.
-
Partnership
Azim Premji University
Together with Azim Premji University (APU), we’re creating opportunities for advanced PHDs, leading academics and experts to focus on the urgent problems facing the world’s most populous democracy.
-
Partnership
Cambridge-INET Institute
Supporting doctoral research through granting PhDs, appointing post-doctoral fellowships, hosting leading international economists, sponsoring major conferences and providing seed funding for cutting-edge research projects.
-
Working Paper
Conference paperWhat is Real Wealth?
Mar 2015
A Ruskinian framework for economic justice.
-
Partnership
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Since 2011, the Institute has partnered with the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) to change the way the field approaches the interplay between economics and governance, accelerating the development of new economic thinking.
-
Working Paper
Working paperAn investigation into Multivariate Variance Ratio Statistics and their application to Stock Market Predictability
Mar 2015
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not impose the no leverage assumption of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) but our asymptotic standard errors are relatively simple and in particular do not require the selection of a bandwidth parameter. We extend the framework to allow for a time varying risk premium through common systematic factors.
-
Article
Mission-Oriented Finance for Innovation: new ideas for investment-led growth
Mar 19, 2015
“The important thing for Government is not to do things which individuals are doing already, and to do them a little better or a little worse; but to do those things which at present are not done at all.” John M. Keynes, The End of Laissez Faire, 1926 (p. 44)
-
Article
Sir John and Maynard Would Have Rejected the IS-LM Framework for Conducting Macroeconomic Analysis
Mar 19, 2015
-
Working Paper
Working Paper SeriesHousehold Income, Demand, and Saving: Deriving Macro Data with Micro Data Concepts
Mar 2015
We develop adjustments to align the NIPA measures of key household flows with cash flow concepts that better reflect household budgets and demand.
-
Article
The Coming China Crisis
Mar 18, 2015
Rapid private-debt growth threw Japan into crisis in 1991 and did the same to the United States and Europe in 2008. China may be next.
-
Working Paper
Conference paperIncome Inequality and Growth: Problems with the Orthodox Approach
Mar 2015
This paper discusses the main issues about increasing inequality, whether it matters and its impact on economic activity and growth. It starts by briefly considering the empirical evidence of the share of income going to the top one percent since 1945 in the advanced countries. It then considers whether this represents an increase in the productivity of the top one percent or merely an extraction of economic rent.
-
Partnership
Asia Global Institute
The Institute partners with the Asia Global Institute (AGI), an independent think tank in Hong Kong, to encourage global policy and actions to move toward a prosperous and sustainable future for the world.