Archive
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Conference Session
Why Do Estimates of Immigration's Economic Effects Clash So Sharply?
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
Untangling the Facts about Immigration in the World Economy.
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Conference Session
Emerging Economies
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
Coping with the dysfunction of advanced economies, and developing strategies for economic development.
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Conference Session
Identity Norms and Narratives
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
The Role These Factors Play in Shaping Economic Knowledge and Behavior
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Conference Session
James Heckman on Intergenerational Issues
Oct 22, 2017 | 05:15
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Working Paper
Conference paperBetting on Hitler – The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany
Oct 2017
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming unconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These results are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators and definitions of affiliation.
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Working Paper
Conference paperImperfect Knowledge, Unpredictability and the Failures of Modern Macroeconomics
Oct 2017
After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.
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Working Paper
Conference paperFrom the Prevailing Paradigm to the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis
Oct 2017
In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.
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Working Paper
Conference paperNotes on the Failure of the Weimar Republic
Oct 2017
“The Failure of Democracy” – “The weaknesses of Weimar” Do headlines such as these suggest that the whole architecture of the first German republic was wrong, that it was doomed right from the start, that the “collapse” was unavoidable?
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Value of Political Connections in Fascist Italy
Oct 2017
Stock Market Returns and Corporate Networks
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Conference Session
Truth or Consequences: Lessons from Past Democratic Collapses
Oct 22, 2017 | 01:30
A look at how liberal democracies have disintegrated amid economic crises. Speakers: Thomas Ferguson, Tiziana Foresti, Nadia Garbellini, Peter Langer, Joachim Voth, Ariel Wirkierman Discussant: James Kurth Chair: Thomas Ferguson
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Conference Session
New Developments in the Economics of Imperfect Knowledge
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
How we can create useful economic theory that recognizes that the future is radically uncertain?
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Working Paper
Conference paperWho voted for Brexit? A comprehensive district-level analysis
Oct 2017
On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). We analyse vote and turnout shares across 380 local authority areas in the United Kingdom.
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Conference Session
Populist Revolts: Economics, Culture, Race, Gender?
Oct 22, 2017 | 09:00
Different accounts trace populism to cultural reactions, racial or gender animosity, and/or economics. What does the empirical evidence suggest?
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Working Paper
Conference paperA Burning Debt. The Influence of Household Debt on Investment, Production and Growth in US.
Oct 2017
This paper discusses household debt as a long term phenomenon that influences economies beyond crises.1 In other words, rather than look at how household indebtedness can lead to crises, I will focus on its surprising persistence at very high levels, and its interactions along the way with other key variables, such as public policies and spending. The first section describes some stylized facts and the final section explores the macroeconomic consequences.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Hinge of Fate? Economic and Social Populism in the 2016 Presidential Election A Preliminary Exploration
Oct 2017
Support for populism is often attributed to xenophobia, racism, sexism; to anger and resentment at immigrants, racial or ethnic minorities, or “uppity” non-traditional women. According to these accounts , people who feel socially resentful may reject established politicians as favoring those “others” over people like themselves, and turn to outsider populistic leaders.