What Lies Ahead? - Q&A and Discussion

It seems the investment principle that George Soros says has been the workhorse of his financial success, that market biases with negative feedbacks will follow biases with positive ones, gives an investor a way to know what to look for in the future, without a real model.   It also quite largely coincides with the physics principles I found as a physicist studying natural systems.   The real value of the principle is how it allows one to escape from the trap of seeming to need deterministic models for non-deterministic behaviors, and to replace the wish to predict uncertainty in the future with being quite certain of where to look for the future.  

I think for the world as a whole, if people trying to both maximize economic profit and welfare together were to learn how to use George's formula for investment success, the world as a whole would turn out to work (after some period of learning and tinkering).   The key seems to be that the investor in any growth system not only invests for compound growing returns, but also going with the reverse, like disinvesting in excesses causing conflict, the common source of the negative feedbacks that positive feedbacks always stimulate.   How to do that with free markets, and on a global scale, is what you discover once you see it's really essential to do that to maintain profitability for the system as a whole.   That principle of feedback reflexivity assures you it will become more profitable to invest in avoiding conflicts, for the system as a whole, as the natural reflex response to periods of whole system compound growth.  

It appears this principle of alternation in growth phases for emerging innovation in natural systems, applies to any scale.   What's needed first is to recognize the evidence of systemic behavior, treating that as evidence of a physical system beyond one’s ability to model, that like a good investor, you can see where the future will lead it before it gets there.    Synapse9/blog fyi