Macroeconomics and Finance

Renminbi Swap Lines

Last week the central banks of China and Australia announced the creation of a $31bn currency swap line. Like every such agreement, it was hailed as another step towards the renminbi's displacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Are the renminbi swap lines in fact a genuine step forward for the internationalization of the RMB? Read more

Posted by Daniel H. Neilson at 4:52 pm

China’s FX Flow Framework

During the “Two Sessions”, China’s Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Administrator of Foreign Exchange Yi Gang both said that the Renminbi might be close to the “equilibrium” level. This top-level comment could probably mark a much lower Renminbi appreciation this year and the advent of RMB’s two-way floating process. Last September, the long-standing consensus of one-way Renminbi appreciation was challenged for the first time since 2005 when the PBoC allowed Renminbi to appreciate against USD. Afterwards, in the onshore market, USDCNY hit lower trading bound set by the PBoC for 12 consecutive days in December; FX purchase by the banks dropped for three straight months in Q4. Read more

Posted by China Seminar at 10:05 am

UK Budget Appeals to Adam Smith's Approach to Taxes... Sort of

Yesterday the Chancellor of the Exchequer (or UK 'finance minister') gave his annual budget speech where UK fiscal policy is set for the coming years. In announcing his tax changes he name-dropped Adam Smith as the inspiration for his objectives on tax:

Two hundred years ago, Adam Smith set out the four principles of good taxation - and they remain good principles today. Taxes should be simple, predictable, support work, and they should be fair. The rich should pay the most, and the poor least.  George Osbourne, 21 March 2011

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Posted by Benjamin Mitra-Kahn at 10:39 am

Eurocrisis Redux

Entangling alliances or entangling leagues are nothing to the entanglements of cash owing—Keynes

The recent BIS Quarterly Review article "European Bank Funding and Deleveraging" takes a stab at connecting all the dots in the Eurocrisis.  It is only 12 pages, but with 8 (triple) graphs, there is a lot here to digest.  Let's take a stab. Read more

Posted by Perry G. Mehrling at 8:34 am

Liquidity: Not Like Water (part 1 of many)

Discussion of the results of the ECB's LTRO2 has revolved around the question of hoarding, specifically whether banks are using the newly-created reserves to fund new lending. Answers to this question usually make reference to the amount of overnight deposits held by eurozone banks at the ECB. Read more

Posted by Daniel H. Neilson at 3:20 pm