Financial Stability

Roger Guesnerie – The Next Economic Frontier and the Wild World of Non-Rational Expectations

 

One of the fundamental ideas of modern economics – that people have rational expectations, an unbiased, statistically correct view of the future – is, in reality, a simple hypothesis. And despite its prominence in recent economic thought, this hypothesis and the economic models that rely on it have been the subject of serious debate since the advent of the Great Recession. Read more

Fixing finance: The missing piece in banking reform

Eric Beinhocker and Tony Dolphin argue that lasting reform to the financial sector will not be achieved without tackling the price rigging and anti-competitive behaviour that is rife in the industry. Read more

Jurassic Economics at ASSA-AEA 2013

  The History of Economics Society (HES) held four sessions at the Allied Social Science Associations (ASSA) 2013 meeting, in San Diego, Jan. 4-6: “Keynes and the International Monetary System” (co-organized by Robert Dimand and Rebeca Gomez Betancourt), “Writing MIT’s History” (organized by E. Roy Weintraub and having our blog fellow Yann Giraud presenting), “Looking for Best Practices in Economic Journalism: Past and Present” (organized by our blog fellow Tiago Mata), and “Real Business Cycle after Three Decades: Past, Present and Future” (a panel discussion co-organized by Warren L. Young and Sumru Altug).

  I will here focus only on the latter. Participants included Nobel Prize Laureates and central figures of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) macroeconomics Read more

Janine Wedel - Behind the Scenes of International Banking Regulation

 

Five years into the Great Recession, discussion and political fights continue about the right approach to international banking supervision. How to avert the next financial crisis or at the very least lessen its damage?

Given the topic's importance, surprising little research exists on the two institutions that actually set banking standards in practice: the Basel Committee and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) operate at the heart of the system, setting capital requirements and standardizing derivative contracts.

Is Capital Flight Taking Place in China?

From the balance of payment perspective

Despite a larger-than-expected amount of net exports this year, China’s capital accounts have printed negative numbers for several months, while in the past China always reported surpluses in both current account and capital account. Some analysts start arguing that China is facing tremendous amount of capital outflow implying that many people are losing confidence on China’s economy. Moreover, they say, Renminbi depreciation in the first three quarters support the view that capital is flowing out of China. Acknowledging capital flight a very important issue, we at the central banking seminar made an effort to find out the reasons for the Renminbi depreciation and the capital account deficit. Read more

Katharina Pistor: False Dichotomies in Law and Finance

“You can’t understand finance if you don’t put law front and center.”

So says Katharina Pistor in her innovative keynote address at INET's False Dichotomies conference, which was co-hosted with the Center for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) in Waterloo, Canada on November 16-17th, 2012. Read more

OMT: Slouching toward Eurobills?

The Eurocrisis has many dimensions—bank solvency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, political unity crisis, and economic/unemployment crisis—but time after time it has been the liquidity crisis dimension driving events, and ECB response to the liquidity crisis driving institutional evolution.  The reason is simple.  Liquidity kills you quick. Read more

The Chicago Plan Revisited - IMF Working Paper

Author: 

At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits.

How does China’s Monetary Policy Committee influence monetary policies? - A brief history (2)

In April 2003, the State Council decided to restructure the Monetary Policy Committee and the new committee was composed of 13 people: the PBC's Governor and two Deputy Governors, a Deputy Secretary-General of the State Council, a Vice Minister of the NDRC, a Vice Finance Minister, the Administrator of the SAFE, the Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the Chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Chairman of China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC), the Commissioner of National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the President of the China Banking Association (CBA) and an expert from the academia. Read more

Liquidity, Down the Drain

China released quarterly GDP figures this week. Wen Jiabao emphasized the parts of the release that pointed toward stabilization, and one can certainly find some logic to that view. Stabilized or not, China's target of 7.5% growth marks a steep slowdown over recent growth rates. Read more