Question & Answers

The only lesson the West can learn from China at this point is not to paint yourself into a corner with foreign exchange reserves. Didn't Soros capitalize on a similar exchange rate anomaly? It's not exactly an apples to apples comparison since one of those anomalies is currently generated under a communist regime, enabling a duration not afforded to the free floating rate of the democratic variety.

If China successfully makes the transition to a consumption from a production based economy successfully while raising the standard of living for its entire population, perhaps we can learn other lessons. However, that's a big "if" and will take quite some time.

Fred Viole

Yes and No

Yes, Western Economies should look into the fundamental way Chinese think about money. Chinese in general have proven to be natural savers. Further, regarding lending money, China's banking regulations are much more strict than the Western world.

Credit is seen by many as quick and easy funds. However it is, at the same time, an opportunity for many to better their lives.

I believe human nature tends to go for the easy fix rather plan for future opportunities.

As China becomes more prosperous and westernized, this default mode of thinking about credit will start to change. So eventually China will come pass the same monetary problems faced in the West.

Creo que el tiempo es un factor determinante en esta pregunta, como sociedades aprendemos permanentemente y creo que con Las economías del Oeste Europeo han sufrido levantamientos sociales fuertes, si combinamos estos dos factores solamente la respuesta sería si, pero existen otros factores a nivel mundial que se tendrían que dar para que realmente el Oeste de Europa resurgiera y uno de ellos es la combinación de tiempo y los bloques económicos mundiales que lo permitan al ser un muevo mapa mundial de la economía de los próximos lustros.

Gracias por permitirme emitir mi opinión ante ustedes como GENIOS de la economía mundial y espero sea un pequeño granito de arena en el inmenso mar de variables y retos que representa su trabajo para el mundo.

Does this economic model, the purported "Chinese" model, imperil the "American" model?

Is this not simply a form of "Import Substitution" in large part coupled to a wide and ranging "Infant Industry Theory", on steroids, made possible by the mass commodification of products, as if mere commodities, where even some Trade Fairs, selling Goods, advertise as Chinese Commodity fairs; as if providers of natural resources.

Much of the common punditry around this topic, revolves around the great shift of economic might from East to West, as if global development, and the diversification of economic might is a new occurrence, rather than a several decade old process. One need only review the data.

Is the great commodification of products, not simply a normal development relative to the Product Life Cycle.

Does much common discussion forget to discuss demographic, basic required resources such as Water, and other issues such as Arable Land? Is there much hype relative to the advance of consumer prospects, where even relatively well paid workers, where even those of multiple of averages, could not possibly purchase the homes being currently speculated upon?

Where Asian consumers, traditionally spend more of their disposable income upon food, this will continue to lead to ever increasing food prices globally as marginal increases in Incomes, will lead to rising commodity prices globally. By extension, it might be easier to believe that some commodification of goods, in this light, might lead to some levels of greater consumption in the short to medium term, prior to the onset of demographic challenges, challenges whose impact will effect the composition of the domestic economy, and the overall economies relation to the global economy.

Is the stop and go, on and off, mechanisms that are utilized within the economy,a strength, or illustrative of weakness?

Is the composition of growth healthy, sustainable, even beneficial, despite headline growth numbers even without the corresponding institutional weakness that plagues the system?

Not to rationalize the excesses, weaken policy responses, or take a lessor than realistic or objective, realistic, even pragmatic view on the evolving situation, but, China is, and will continue to be a Developing Country. There is, and will continue to be great human capacity development needs within the country. Further there is and will continue to be a plethora of development opportunities more broadly across the world.

In many ways, the discussion of these issues, in the way that they are handled in the popular media, even in some venues discussing evolutions to an evolutionary system, are counter productive. Further, the model presented by China, presents great challenges to Global Development, in many ways, especially a Global Development that is more widespread, and broad based, siphoning off many resources, and exciting, the excitable Global Investor base.

One need be more reflective upon what is occurring, attempted, or purported to occur, and under what time-frame. While one discusses population, this is unilaterally discussed as a benefit. It might be, it isn't certain that it is, as there are so many factors to consider in this, where it might be beneficial, it might not be, and further, it might present many challenges. I guess today, by repetition, isolated, and important factors, can isolate the other important factors from the discussion, limiting objectivity, to the obviously, necessary condition, that must occur, as if, certainly from, repetition, it must be so.

These are simply a few thoughts to consider, I could write endlessly on the topic, and so many other obvious conditions, in the present media environment, that are less obviously so.

One last comment, the sheer weight of development opportunity (need), is in many weighs, a great delimiting factor upon the development trajectories of similarly placed countries, while those in the developed world are sidetracked from the real issues that need to be addressed in failing to understand the implications of that premise.

Where opportunity costs theorems hold true, and a seeming benefit, the accumulation of foreign reserves outside of need for a deep need to cover import cover for a realistic period of time when considered in the light of the composition of GDP, then the proposition as to the model, and its implications, both as have been perceived, and unto the future, in many ways, might lead to very different conclusions, on m,any of the presently assumed premises upon which many of the ways in which these issues are discussed, not to mention so many of the isolated factors that have been isolated from the discussion. As always there are many challenges and opportunities presented by the present issue, not least its surface level coverage in the popular press globally.