China Seminar

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I'd like to do an advertisement at the beginning of this post. Our Shadow PBOC seminar has set up a website: It will not only include long analysis on certain topics of Chinese economy as I have been posting on this blog, but also have shorter but more frequent pieces on interbank market and some smaller events. We are also thinking about filming part of the seminar and the videos will be uploaded on the website as well when we finish doing that. Thank all readers for following this blog and please keep following us at in the future. 


This week, Chen Long and I were honored to be invited to the INET-Tsinghua conference in Shenzhen. Sharpest minds gathered at the conference to discuss the most concerned economic issues on China. Titled “The Good Life: The Challenge of Progress in China Today”, the conference addressed topics on China’s institution, shadow banking, financial liberalization and urbanization. Several speeches sparked inspiration in my minds, and I want to share the opinions in the post.

I wrote two pieces responding to FT's recent debt dragon series but they were on the Institute blog site instead of here. So I am pasting the links below so that our readers can find them:

China Economics Seminar: Understanding the Guizhou Paradox

China Economics Seminar: The Real Risk In China’s Local Government Debt



It is no secret that the quality of Chinese statistics, especially GDP, is far from perfect. Chinese GDP’s lack of volatility often looks surreal.

Along with many other China analysts, I often feel frustrated by this. Perhaps I feel even more strongly because it is somehow embarrassing when foreign investors and scholars always ask me how authentic my country’s data is.

Recently, forward guidance has become a new fashion in the world of central banks and Bank of England is the latest one to join this club. In the news conference last Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said that the BoE would not raise Bank rates from the current level of 0.5% until the unemployment rate, currently at 7.8%, dropped to below 7%. The BoE’s historic move was following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, who introduced forward guidance in December 2012 and July 2013 respectively.