China

Relaxation on loan-to-deposit ratio?

An interesting debate is taking place among the top financial regulators and bankers in China. Read more

Delicate balance

The current account still matters, but other things do too, and maybe more. In light of recent focus on gross flows, here and elsewhere, I want to argue for the language of the balance of payments. This language has a quaint feel to it, and my sense is that economists view it as archaic and outmoded. I am certain, at least, that one can get through grad school with no fluency in it. Read more

A Structural Change in CNY Selloff

Following our previous posting on USDCNY decomposition, we further explore the intraday movements in recent three months, and its difference with 2008 CNY selloff period.

 

                    Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 30, 2011.

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Overview of PBoC Instruments

As a seminar focusing on China’s monetary policy, we’ve always been interested in the use of monetary instruments by People’s Bank of China (PBoC). In this posting, we’d like to wrap up the core elements of our past discussions on PBoC instruments.

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Interday and Intraday Movement of USDCNY

Suggested by our instructor Logan, we draw the following chart, which decomposes onshore USDCNY price movements into two parts, interday and intraday.

 

            Source: Bloomberg. Data as of Dec 16, 2011.

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Foreign Exchange Purchases: A Burden for Chinese Banks

Chinese FX reserves have reached $3.2 trillion. The majority of the FX reserves are accumulated through financial institutions, such as commercial banks, purchases of dollars from corporations and households. As an article in September 26th edition of the South China Morning Post puts it:

Let's look at one of these assets "left on bank balance sheets", an item obscurely classified in the official statistics as "financial institutions position for forex purchases". This category of assets now amounts to 25.3 trillion yuan.

Foreign Exchange Reserves: A Double-Edged Sword

The recent currency bill passed by the US Senate has once again drawn attention to the Sino-US trade issue and the colossal foreign exchange reserves accumulated by the PBoC, China's central bank, as a result of years of Chinese surplus. Chinese FX reserves have increased by 17.2 times from 166 billion USD in 2000 to 3.2 trillion USD in September 2011, an annual growth rate of 29.5% from 2000 to 2010. The pile of reserve assets on PBoC’s balance sheet is impressive, but is it good policy for China keep such a high foreign reserve?

 

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Where did the RMB 420bn deposit go?

During a recent seminar, we heatedly discussed the following news from the Global Times:

Compared with the end of August, the top four state-owned Chinese banks, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, saw total deposit outflows of about 420 billion yuan ($65.63 billion) during the first 15 days of September, according to a report by China Securities Journal on Thursday.

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China's Ministry of Railways debt: Three ways out of the mess

A huge debt of RMB 2.1 trillion (330 billion USD) as well as serious funding problems—how will the Ministry of Railways handle it? Or more precisely, how will the behind-the-scenes decision-maker, China’s central government deal with this issue? We think there are three ways out of the debt mess.

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The price is wrong

Focus on quantities

By Daniel H. Neilson

Debate continues over what is the right level for the dollar–renminbi exchange rate. I find it hard to see how focusing on this one price will lead to a productive outcome, politically or economically. Debating the exchange rate focuses the attention on the metric that guides policy. A better approach is to focus on the other side of the coin, namely reserve accumulation.

China's accumulation of US dollar reserves, mainly Treasury debt these days, is not a by-product of its exchange-rate policy. It is the exchange-rate policy. Read more