The Money View

Bank or no bank?

A money view of SDRs

In a market economy, when you need something, you go out and buy it. Liquidity is no different, in that respect at least. If it is market liquidity that you need, you go to a dealer, who stands ready to buy what you are selling. You pay for the convenience, though—the dealer is getting more for the same asset than you are. If it is funding liquidity that you need, you go to your bank, who stands ready to lend. You pay for the convenience, though—the bank is paying less for its funds than you are.

Stick with funding liquidity for a moment. A bank is well suited to provide such liquidity, since a bank's liabilities are money, and it can create them at will. If the need for funding liquidity is systemic, the bank that can provide it must be the one whose liabilities are interbank money—the central bank.

And if the need for liquidity is international? The country that issues the world's reserve money can create more of it, and that might be enough to stave off the crisis. Might some other asset do the job?

The eurozone crisis has sparked fears of a global need for liquidity. Domenico Lombardi and Sarah Puritz Milsom propose that a new allocation of special drawing rights could increase eurozone countries' ability to backstop the peripheral sovereign debt that still constrains their banks' ability to raise funds.

Do SDRs provide international liquidity? Can the IMF serve as a bank, creating more money to meet the world's need for liquidity?

The SDR is a reserve asset, in fact a reserve asset only for the top of hierarchy of money, as they can be held only by central banks. The SDR is opaquely defined as "a potential claim on the freely usable currencies of the IMF member countries". This linguistic muddle reflects the bureaucratic muddle that surrounded the SDR's creation. "Paper gold" or credit money, went the debate, and in the end the SDR is neither.

Gold—outside money—is distinguished by its aggregate stock's independence of short-term liquidity needs. Credit—inside money—is highly responsive to short-term liquidity needs arising from ordinary banking business. The SDR, for its part, is created with the consent of 85% of the votes of IMF members, so it has neither the indifference of gold nor the responsiveness of credit. 

In that they are a purely financial concoction, SDRs are arguably more like credit than they are like gold. But credit money is a claim on the issuer, and SDRs are carefully described as potential claims, and not claims on the IMF, but rather claims on the "freely usable currencies of the IMF member countries".

In practice, this means that the IMF acts as a broker in the market for SDRs, matching buyers and sellers. But it does not—can not—act as a dealer by buying and selling on its own account. What happens, then, when a seller cannot be matched with a buyer? The IMF can, in theory, assign the transaction to a member central bank, who would be obligated to provide national currency for the SDRs. This is in sharp distinction to a bank, which must allow its own balance sheet to fluctuate in size in the handling of payments.

SDRs could back the extension of guarantees of eurozone sovereign debt to European banks. But the eurozone's funding needs are surely in the hundreds of billions of euros, if not into the trillions. If those guarantees were called upon, it would be euros, not SDRs, that would have to be paid to make whole the private holders of sovereign debt. The SDRs would have to be sold. The IMF would be powerless to assign them in sufficient size to generate the needed euros.

The IMF, this is to say, is no bank. Because it cannot, in practice, make liquid the market for SDRs, a new allocation would turn a funding liquidity crisis on the part of European banks into a market liquidity crisis on the part of central banks. Rather than eurozone banks being unable to borrow, the Eurosystem would have no way to sell a trillion euros' worth of SDRs. Such a crisis unlikely to come about, I hasten to add. Market participants and central bankers will look through the proposal and see that it creates no new liquidity.
 

Why did the ECB LTROs help?

From a money view perspective, the central issue is settlement of TARGET balances between national central banks within the Eurozone, and the key is to understand TARGET balances as a kind of interbank correspondent balance.  What I want to suggest is that the ECB's Long Term Refinance Operation can help settle the troublesome TARGET balance overhang.

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Delicate balance

The current account still matters, but other things do too, and maybe more. In light of recent focus on gross flows, here and elsewhere, I want to argue for the language of the balance of payments. This language has a quaint feel to it, and my sense is that economists view it as archaic and outmoded. I am certain, at least, that one can get through grad school with no fluency in it. Read more

Does the Current Account Still Matter?

The title is the same as that of Maury Obstfeld's Ely Lecture, delivered Jan 6 at the AEA meetings in Chicago.  Yours truly was at the meetings mainly to deliver a paper on "Three Principles for Market-Based Credit Regulation", about which more in a later post.  And for most of the rest of the time I was locked in a hotel room interviewing candidates for an assistant professor slot at Barnard College (which gave me a good overview of the current state of macroeconomics, again fodder for a later post).   Read more

Nobody understands money

A correspondent sends us to a column of Paul Krugman's that asserts that "nobody understands debt". Fair enough. To my mind, this line stands out:

And because foreigners tend to put their U.S. investments into safe, low-yield assets, America actually earns more from its assets abroad than it pays to foreign investors.

Heterodoxy and The Economist

When I started this blog, almost exactly one year ago today, my thought was to provide commentary on the financial events of the day, using the Financial Times as my primary source of information about those events.  I felt, as Mr Skinner writes in his letter today, that the public does not know much about banking.  He recommends starting from the text "Where Does Money Come From?", which seems to me fine advice.  But the hard thing, as always, is applying such textbook knowledge to the real world events of the day; that's what I was determined to do in the blog. Read more

Fixed exchange rates

By Daniel H. Neilson

As we prepare to digest the implications of this week's ECB move, it seems worthwhile to take a look at the monetary economics of fixed exchange rates.

There are two basic ways to hold fixed the exchange rate between the money of two communities: peg the exchange rate or create a monetary union. Read more

John Whittaker: Eurosystem balances explained

[The following guest post is by John Whittaker, from whom we have learned much of what we know about how the European payments system works.  See his terrific papers here and here, both of which reward close study.  He has been looking over the last couple Money View posts, and the comments to those posts, and has this to say.] Read more

The IMF and the Collateral Crunch

[N.B.:  This post, while intended to stand on its own, should be understood as part of a sustained analysis that we have been carrying on over a series of posts.  Readers who find themselves baffled by this post may want to start with earlier posts in the thread:  specifically here, and here.] Read more

Is there an ECB?

The ECB has always been the protagonist of the eurozone crisis story. At times it has seemed the arch-villain, coldly standing on principle even as the financial system crumbles around it. At other times it has seemed the hero in waiting, ready to step in at the eleventh hour to bring a moral-hazard-free end to the turmoil with its unlimited balance sheet.

What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that the plot is taking a twist. The question is no longer whether the ECB is villain or hero, but whether it exists at all. (And today's collateral eligibility expansion doesn't resolve the question.) Let me explain. Read more

First the ECB, then the IMF, Part One

The fact of the matter is that European bank funding markets are collapsing onto the ECB balance sheet.  Forget about the €200 billion of outright peripheral bond purchases--small potatoes.   National central bank exposures, through the TARGET clearing system, now exceed €400 billion, and private bank exposures, through discount lending and deposit facilities, are the same order of magnitude.  

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